The repo rate could be reduced by 50 bps in the current year.
Prime Minister Modi last week called for optimal grain storage, fire audits and mock drills in hospitals as preparations for the harsh summer forecast by the meteorological department.
Analysts expect inflation to peak in the first half of 2016-17 and moderate, thereafter, on the back of positive impact of monsoons
Markets ended in green on rate cut hope.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday decided to keep policy rate unchanged for third time in a row as it maintains heightened vigil on inflation. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022.
El Nino, which refers to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, will likely to keep CPI inflation up at 8-10 per cent in the second half of 2014 and will pose a 50-70 basis point risk to this fiscal's growth expectation, the report by financial services major Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.
No immediate relief appears in sight as the India Meteorological Department issued a red alert for six districts which have been already pounded by downpour, forecasting "extremely heavy" rainfall and recommending preventive actions.
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors rose to a 14-month high of 12.1 per cent in August 2023 against 4.2 per cent a year ago, mainly due to expansion in production of coal, crude oil, and natural gas, according to the official data released on Friday. The expansion in August is the highest since June 2022, when it was 13.2 per cent. The production of refinery products, steel, cement and electricity also grew in August, the data showed.
Good monsoon is likely to create more jobs in the agriculture sector, which in turn could save the exchequer around Rs 10,000 crore
While the city received some showers late Wednesday night, it remained almost dry on Thursday.
The red alert was issued for the second consecutive day. Rains have been lashing Mumbai and adjoining districts since Tuesday night.
A meteorological department official said these were pre-monsoon showers and added that partly cloudy skies with chances of rain/thundershowers were forecast for Mumbai in the next 24 hours.
Rain for the central and northwestern parts a concern.
Nearly two-thirds of India's gold demand comes from rural areas where jewellery is a traditional store of wealth for millions who have no access to the formal banking system.
A ramp-up in COVID-19 vaccination, healthy advance estimates of kharif (summer) crop and faster government spending were the factors which led to the revision, the agency said in a statement. It can be noted that after the 7.3 per cent contraction in 2020-21, there were expectations of a higher growth number in 2021-22.
The IMD attributed the projection to a weakening of El Nio and the Indian Ocean Dipole turning positive.
The India meteorological department said another western disturbance is likely to bring storms and rain to the northern plains, including Delhi, over the next few days.
The development of private data sources is a hugely positive development. It should serve as a challenge to the government to improve its own record on producing timely and reliable statistics, points out T N Ninan.
Mid-cap information technology (IT) stocks dominate the list of companies that are trading significantly above their 200-DMA
'If we don't control the additional pollutants that come from various human activities then, the pollution level will not come down.'
The Consumer Price Index hit the lowest in six months in March at 4.83 per cent.
Monsoon in August was almost 24 per cent below normal, which was the sixth driest August since 1901. It came on the back of a 7-per cent monsoon shortfall in July.
Automobile retail sales in India increased by 37 per cent in April on a low base of COVID-hit April last year, automobile dealers' body FADA said on Thursday. Total sales across categories rose to 16,27,975 units in April, as compared to 11,87,771 units in the year-ago period. On a year-on-year basis, all vehicle categories including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers were up as compared with April last year.
Current Account Deficit is projected at 1.2 per cent and 1 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 and 2015-16.
The prices of oilseed, coarse cereals & vegetables could also be affected.
Retail inflation has eased from double digits in 2013.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the status quo on policy rates for the fourth consecutive time in its October 4-6 review meeting. The incremental information available since its last meeting in August suggests that growth and inflation prints for the second quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24) will exceed the committee's projections. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is expected to moderate in the second half (H2) of FY24.
Admitting that the economy may be impacted if the monsoon is inadequate, the government on Monday said the growth rate in 2009 will not fall to the levels being projected by international agencies like the IMF and the World Bank.
In another forecast for August, IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said monsoon is also likely to be normal in the month.
Extreme weather events and disasters have been on the rise in the region.
Despite high exposure to floods, Assam, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, and Sikkim are the best performing states in terms of flood early warning systems (EWS), according to the report by independent policy research think tank The Council on Energy Environment and Water.
Apart from the human body, human food will bear direct repercussions. From staples such as wheat, to coffee, dairy, and even the great Hilsa face the threat of reduced supply due to the extreme heat.
Above-normal heatwave days are predicted in most parts of central, east and northwest India during this period.
According to World Gold Council (WGC), gold jewellery demand in India, the world's largest consumer, touched record 662.1 tonnes in 2014.
The GST revenues for August 2023 have shown a growth of 11 per cent year on year due to increased compliance and less evasion, Revenue secretary Sanjay Malhotra said on Friday. The collection from Goods and Services Tax (GST) was Rs 1,43,612 crore in August 2022. "Roughly numbers are in the range of 11 per cent year on year growth as in earlier months," Malhotra told reporters.
Sales of refrigerators were higher this year versus last year.
It is November and Mumbai's monsoon is not done yet.
The finance ministry on Thursday raised concerns over the possible impact of El Nio conditions on India this year, saying if recent forecasts came true, the country could see lower agricultural output and higher inflation. "Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Nio conditions in India this year. "If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices," the ministry said in its monthly economic review.
Standard Chartered on Friday lowered India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 4.7 per cent from earlier 5.5 per cent, citing "upside risks" to inflation and fiscal deficit.
'If all goes well, we may well hit or even surpass the forecast growth rate.'
